Record Oil Inventories

As the Shale Boom, however temporary, continues to push crude supplies to record levels not seen since the early 1930’s – expect to see weakness which goes against the seasonal trend into the driving months. Barring any social unrest around Russia on the global stage, a pullback is expected as both a stronger dollar from Fed actions along with $5-$8 dollars per barrel is removed from decreasing tensions as emotions wane from sanctions.

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Canceled Plan

The cancel price was reached before the first buy could be triggered.

Looking through the data, oil will be very interesting trade this spring/summer and price action will be key at pivotal points along the channel lines.  Should we break out to the upside, I see a confluence of multiple technical indicators lending themselves to a price of around $41.54.  Those looking to hold longer than the targets outlined, may want to keep that region in mind.



  Price Shares Cost Returns R/R
Green Channel
Buy $28.41
$880.71  
Reward $37.84 $1,173.04 $292.33
Risk $24.37 $755.47 ($125.24)
Cancel $29.29    
 
Blue|Red Channel
Buy $24.37
$584.88  
Reward $30.79 $738.96 $154.08
Risk $18.06 $433.44 ($151.44)
Even $26.65      
 
1st Trade exit @ reward target $73.78  
Total Reward from all applicable channels $227.86  
Total Risk from all applicable channels ($472.29)  
 
Gray Channel
Buy $18.06
$8,524.32  
Reward $28.01 $13,220.72 $4,696.40
Risk $17.71 $8,359.12 ($165.20)
Even $18.96      
 
1st Trade exit @ reward target ($12.40)  
2nd Trade exit @ reward target $87.36  
Total Reward from all applicable channels $4,771.36  
Total Risk from all applicable channels ($656.74)  
Green Channel

2.33:1
reward : risk
level reached 60.42%
Blue|Red Channel

1.02:1
reward : risk
level reached 38.16%
Gray Channel

28.43:1
reward : risk
level reached 20.14%

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