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Trouble with the Curve

The yield curve has predicted almost every US recession and as the Fed raises interest rates with markets at all time highs, some would say the stars are aligning for some doubt around whether President Trump can deliver on his economic policies to continue to lift inflation expectations.

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Failed Plan

The plan exited at the final stop loss.

As the US yield curve continues to flatten, what typically resulted in long term bonds costing more to issue may begin to favor the shorter term bonds at least in the near term.  The signals in the market are providing divergence between key indicators and stock market levels of late.  These discrepancies are often resolved in quick movements which take investors off guard.  As China resumes their actions in the Treasury market and both Europe and Japan are full speed ahead, investors have little options but to move into US markets in search for yields with some perceived safety relative to other markets.


  Price Shares Cost Returns R/R
Green Channel
Buy $126.91
$5,964.77  
Reward $137.71 $6,472.37 $507.60
Risk $125.01 $5,875.47 ($89.30)
Cancel $133.26    
 
Blue Channel
Buy $125.01
$1,875.15  
Reward $133.26 $1,998.90 $123.75
Risk $119.15 $1,787.25 ($87.90)
Even $126.45      
 
1st Trade exit @ reward target $298.45  
Total Reward from all applicable channels $422.20  
Total Risk from all applicable channels ($452.62)  
 
Red Channel
Buy $119.15
$1,906.40  
Reward $126.38 $2,022.08 $115.68
Risk $112.02 $1,792.32 ($114.08)
Even $124.95      
 
1st Trade exit @ reward target ($24.91)  
2nd Trade exit @ reward target $20.55  
Total Reward from all applicable channels $111.32  
Total Risk from all applicable channels ($1,008.76)  
Green Channel

5.68:1
reward : risk
level reached 60.42%
Blue Channel

1.41:1
reward : risk
level reached 38.16%
Red Channel

1.01:1
reward : risk
level reached 20.14%
6/27/2017 by Dave H Friedel Jr in Financial Trust Type: Equities

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