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Summer Cliffhanger

Learning from past price increases, Netflix’s CEO Reed Hastings correctly priced a future increase to appease existing customers to reward them for their early adopter status. While capping future revenue growth for two years of the existing 36 Million subscribers, Netflix still is well positioned within the cable cutting trend and still has a large international market opportunities.

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Successful Plan

The plan exited at one of the 3 reward stages. Note returns and percentages are calculated based on the levels executed only.

Currently projections suggest the 13 million international subscribers could grow 2x while the US subscriber base may only modestly grow which likely revenue will be used to expand its original programming designed to compete against the likes of HBO.


  Price Shares Cost Returns R/R
Green Channel
Buy $335.00
$2,345.00  
Reward $418.93 $2,932.51 $587.51
Risk $279.09 $1,953.63 ($391.37)
Cancel $383.81    
 
Blue|Gray Channel
Buy $279.09
$3,628.17  
Reward $369.75 $4,806.75 $1,178.58
Risk $242.41 $3,151.33 ($476.84)
Even $298.66      
 
1st Trade exit @ reward target $243.25  
Total Reward from all applicable channels $1,421.83  
Total Risk from all applicable channels ($1,124.97)  
 
Red Channel
Buy $242.41
$3,636.15  
Reward $360.25 $5,403.75 $1,767.60
Risk $196.02 $2,940.30 ($695.85)
Even $274.55      
 
1st Trade exit @ reward target $176.75  
2nd Trade exit @ reward target $1,055.08  
Total Reward from all applicable channels $2,999.43  
Total Risk from all applicable channels ($2,748.62)  
Green Channel

1.50:1
reward : risk
level reached 60.42%
Blue|Gray Channel

2.47:1
reward : risk
level reached 38.16%
Red Channel

2.54:1
reward : risk
level reached 20.14%
5/12/2014 by Dave H Friedel Jr in Technology Type: Equities

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