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A Dilemma Facing Delta

With countries restricting travel, international carriers are faced with headwinds that even the strongest jets will struggle to take off. But investors must see further than the immediate bans and position for when travel returns. The low oil prices should provide excellent opportunities for airlines to lock in prices as well.

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Successful Plan

The plan exited at one of the 3 reward stages. Note returns and percentages are calculated based on the levels executed only.

Fortunately Delta removed most of their oil hedges in 2016 and will benefit from the lower prices, despite in the short term experiencing negative net bookings in the short term.  But their aggressive pivoting to protect from the health concerns is a testament to their leadership’s quick thinking.


  Price Shares Cost Returns R/R
Green Channel
Buy $30.03
$3,123.12  
Reward $51.81 $5,388.24 $2,265.12
Risk $25.62 $2,664.48 ($458.64)
Cancel $48.50    
 
Blue Channel
Buy $25.62
$2,485.14  
Reward $48.40 $4,694.80 $2,209.66
Risk $18.10 $1,755.70 ($729.44)
Even $27.90      
 
1st Trade exit @ reward target $1,910.48  
Total Reward from all applicable channels $4,120.14  
Total Risk from all applicable channels ($1,970.16)  
 
Red Channel
Buy $18.10
$4,362.10  
Reward $44.85 $10,808.85 $6,446.75
Risk $14.02 $3,378.82 ($983.28)
Even $22.56      
 
1st Trade exit @ reward target $1,541.28  
2nd Trade exit @ reward target $1,865.31  
Total Reward from all applicable channels $9,853.34  
Total Risk from all applicable channels ($3,773.52)  
Green Channel

4.94:1
reward : risk
level reached 60.42%
Blue Channel

3.03:1
reward : risk
level reached 38.16%
Red Channel

6.56:1
reward : risk
level reached 20.14%
3/15/2020 by Dave H Friedel Jr in Industrials Type: Equities

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