Thinking sanely about Tesla

The golden boy of silicon valley and arguably the poster child for visionaries and investors alike, Musk embodies the idea of what the public holds for an entrepreneur even if the people in the trenches are not quite so taken by the facade. That said, markets are a balance of what is today and what could be tomorrow with Tesla providing that blend in spades. But has the market gotten ahead of itself recently is the question.

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Failed Plan

The plan exited at the final stop loss.

Between electric vehicles, batteries and solar panels, Tesla has a complete picture crafted with only the supply chain being exposed to targets necessary to deliver on the promises of their leader and the demand being projected in the market.  This brings us to the Achilles heel which plagues every visionary; time and cost.  After receiving the Giga-factory below cost and talks around the next one in India, mixed with initially overly optimistic expectations around trucking and solar panels that are truly priced out of the larger segment and relegated to new builds rather than the existing market of homes… it appears Tesla could be strategically looking to raise money and short term investors could be ready to take profits in preparation to the year end Christmas rally.


  Price Shares Cost Returns R/R
Green Channel
Buy $329.21
$1,975.26  
Reward $422.66 $2,535.96 $560.70
Risk $282.23 $1,693.38 ($281.88)
Cancel $402.59    
 
Blue Channel
Buy $282.23
$2,822.30  
Reward $410.24 $4,102.40 $1,280.10
Risk $224.03 $2,240.30 ($582.00)
Even $299.85      
 
1st Trade exit @ reward target $486.18  
Total Reward from all applicable channels $1,766.28  
Total Risk from all applicable channels ($1,213.08)  
 
Red Channel
Buy $224.03
$4,928.66  
Reward $346.23 $7,617.06 $2,688.40
Risk $195.68 $4,304.96 ($623.70)
Even $255.95      
 
1st Trade exit @ reward target $102.12  
2nd Trade exit @ reward target $640.00  
Total Reward from all applicable channels $3,430.52  
Total Risk from all applicable channels ($2,290.38)  
Green Channel

1.99:1
reward : risk
level reached 60.42%
Blue Channel

2.20:1
reward : risk
level reached 38.16%
Red Channel

4.31:1
reward : risk
level reached 20.14%

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