Green Hydrogen; A Pipe Dream?

As more countries are making green hydrogen a priority for their energy needs, there is only one significant player with the experience, technology and capability to start a world-scale, green hydrogen revolution – Air Products

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Green Power
As the leading global supplier of green hydrogen, Air Products is set to de-carbonize a range of industries that have proved hard to clean up in the past, i.e., chemical, iron and steel manufacturing industries. While the majority of hydrogen by Air Products is already used in industry, the opportunity lies in making a big play in the race for low-carbon transport fuels.

Mega Project
With Air Products, scale is key to affordability and what better way to achieve this than a huge green hydrogen plant using 4 gigawatts of Saudi renewable electricity. Topping out at an impressive 650 tons of green hydrogen daily, enough to run around 20,000 hydrogen-fueled buses, Air Products is set to achieve this by shipping ammonia to end markets globally, then convert it back to hydrogen. All of this is slated for 2025 if production goes to schedule.

Price Premium
All Of this sounds wonderful but it comes at a cost. The price of green hydrogen is still not competitive to natural gas but Air Products believes it can achieve this by amassing buyers with access to Saudi Arabia’s vast renewable energy resources. The project is still a long way to go with a target completion by 2030, making difficult to price in future growth so far out.

The intersection of opportunity
Long term, Air Product’s green hydrogen production using carbon-free electricity sounds like a renewable dream come true but until it doesn’t costs four to six times more than making hydrogen from fossil fuels. Investors must weigh those costs until they can drop with efficiency gains and economies of scale, making this an infrastructure play still being built around the world.

 



  Price Shares Cost Returns R/R
Green Channel
Buy $252.80
$3,539.20  
Reward $348.21 $4,874.94 $1,335.74
Risk $219.80 $3,077.20 ($462.00)
Cancel $273.55    
 
Blue Channel
Buy $219.80
$3,736.60  
Reward $301.98 $5,133.66 $1,397.06
Risk $186.65 $3,173.05 ($563.55)
Even $234.70      
 
1st Trade exit @ reward target $688.52  
Total Reward from all applicable channels $2,085.58  
Total Risk from all applicable channels ($1,489.65)  
 
Red Channel
Buy $186.65
$2,426.45  
Reward $269.80 $3,507.40 $1,080.95
Risk $125.20 $1,627.60 ($798.85)
Even $220.51      
 
1st Trade exit @ reward target $238.00  
2nd Trade exit @ reward target $850.00  
Total Reward from all applicable channels $2,168.95  
Total Risk from all applicable channels ($4,193.45)  
Green Channel

2.89:1
reward : risk
level reached 60.42%
Blue Channel

2.48:1
reward : risk
level reached 38.16%
Red Channel

1.35:1
reward : risk
level reached 20.14%

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